Sequence of Returns Risk
Sequence of returns risk is one of the least understood — yet most dangerous — risks facing retirees. It refers to the impact that the timing of market returns has on your portfolio, especially when you’re withdrawing income.
Two retirees can earn the exact same average return over 30 years, yet one can run out of money while the other thrives — simply because of when market downturns occurred.
Why Sequence Risk Matters
When you’re working, market downturns are temporary setbacks. You’re still contributing, and you have time to recover.
In retirement, the dynamic flips.
You’re withdrawing from your portfolio at the same time markets may be falling. This creates a “double hit”:
- Your account value drops
- You’re withdrawing from a smaller balance
- The portfolio has less ability to recover
This can permanently reduce your long‑term income potential.
The Danger of Early Losses
Losses early in retirement are far more damaging than losses later. A bad first five years can derail an otherwise well‑designed plan.
How to Protect Yourself
A strong retirement income strategy must:
- Reduce exposure to early‑retirement volatility
- Create stable income sources
- Use guardrails to manage withdrawals
- Coordinate taxes and investment risk
- Stress‑test for multiple market scenarios
Sequence risk can’t be eliminated — but it can be managed.